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China restricts exports: a product's price that plunged suddenly increased, and Vietnam's exports bottomed since March 2021

The export price of this product in the first 9 months of the year plummeted by 35.5% compared to the same period.

 

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's fertilizer exports of all kinds reached 91,756 tons, equivalent to more than 41 million USD, a decline of 42% in volume and 30% in value compared to August. In September 2022, fertilizer exports this month decreased by 43% in volume and 43% in value, reaching the lowest level since March 2021.

Export fertilizer prices in September 2023 reached 450 USD/ton, which increased 21% compared to August, but still decreased 23% compared to September 2022. Prices rose again due to a new decision from China.

Accumulated in the first 9 months of the year, fertilizer exports reached nearly 1.2 million tons with a turnover of more than 491 million USD, fell 14% in volume, and 44.5% in turnover compared to the same period in 2022. On average, first 9 months of 2023, fertilizer export prices have slumped 35.5% compared to the same period in 2022, which went down to 412 USD/ton.

In terms of markets, Vietnam's fertilizer exports are mainly to the Cambodian market, which alone accounts for over 36.7% of the total volume and 37.6% of the total fertilizer export turnover of the whole country. Cambodia imported 438,704 tons, equivalent to 185 million USD, an increase of 16.9% in volume but a decrease of 7.2% in turnover and a decrease in price of 20.6% over the same period in 2022.

Behind the main market of Cambodia is the Malaysian market with 74,131 tons, equivalent to 24.7 million USD, average price of 324.6 USD/ton, down 36% in volume, down 59.6% in turnover, accounting for 6%. in total volume and accounts for 5% of the country's total fertilizer export turnover. Export price in 9 months reached 333.2 USD/ton.

Exports to the Korean market reached 50,520 tons, equivalent to 18.8 million USD, average price of 372.8 USD/ton, a sharp decrease of 40.6% in volume, a 70.2% decrease in turnover, and a 50% decrease in price. , accounting for 4.2% of total volume and 3.8% of total turnover.

Since early September, as stated by Bloomberg sources, a number of large Chinese fertilizer manufacturers have stopped signing new export contracts since the beginning of this month owing to the request of the Government and this restriction only applies to urea stool.

This has had a significant impact on the global fertilizer market, because China is the world's leading producer and consumer of urea, imposing a restriction on urea exports could cause a risk of tightening supply and push up fertilizer prices. China's largest fertilizer export markets are India, Korea, Myanmar, and Australia.

Besides China, another country in the top fertilizer exports is Morocco, where the strongest earthquake of the century occurred on September 8, which will affect the world fertilizer supply in the short term. Morocco owns 70% of the world's phosphorus rock output and has advantages in fertilizer and phosphate production.

The above events have boosted urea prices on the world fertilizer market to continue to increase, after an upsurge due to factors such as escalating tensions in the Black Sea and a sudden rise in urea demand from India (due to decreased domestic output and up rice growing area), Egypt cut 30% of gas for fertilizer production (last year, Egypt accounted for 4% of production output and 8% of global urea exports).

Since 2021, domestic fertilizer prices witnessed many fluctuations, and if compared with previous timelines, prices have tumbled deeply. Up to this time, urea fertilizer prices in September 2023 have sunk 32-45% compared to the same period last year. If compared to the record level set in April 2023, this price is about 50-60% lower. Urea's price is about 9,900-11,200 VND/kg. Prices of DAP and potassium fertilizers are also lower than in the same period last year, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said.

According to Rong Viet Securities Joint Stock Company, world urea prices may increase in the last months of 2023 and Vietnam's domestic market will also move in the same phase. In addition, in Vietnam, urea production output in the last 6 months of the year is usually 5-12% higher than the first half of the year, mainly serving the Winter-Spring crop.

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